Keep Us Strong WikiLeaks logo

Currently released so far... 5420 / 251,287

Articles

Browse latest releases

Browse by creation date

Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z

Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
QA
YM YI YE

Browse by classification

Community resources

courage is contagious

Viewing cable 05BRASILIA1874, BRAZIL: LULA'S APPROVAL INCREASES AMIDST

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs

Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
  • The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
  • The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
  • The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.

Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #05BRASILIA1874.
Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
05BRASILIA1874 2005-07-14 19:07 2011-02-23 00:12 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Brasilia
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS BRASILIA 001874 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON BR
SUBJECT: BRAZIL: LULA'S APPROVAL INCREASES AMIDST 
CORRUPTION SCANDAL 
 
REF: A. BRASILIA 1819 
     B. BRASILIA 1849 
     C. BRASILIA 1867 
 
1.(SBU) SUMMARY. A Sensus survey published in Brazil on July 12 reported a 2.5% increase in President Lula's approval rating since May. While ongoing investigations of scandals have greatly tarnished his PT party's image over the past few weeks, Lula thus far has been successful in disassociating himself from the corruption allegations and remains the front-runner in the 2006 presidential elections. END SUMMARY. 

FAITH IN THE PRESIDENT, NOT THE PARTY ------------------------------------- 

2.(U) The July 12 CNT-Sensus survey indicates that President Lula's approval rating rose from 57% in May to 60% in July. The survey was conducted between July 5-7, following the series of corruption revelations that started on May 22, but before some of the more recent revelations involving Lula's Workers' Party (PT) (reftels). When asked who was more involved in the corruption scandals, the voters replied: Congress (35%); the PT (31%); and Lula (12%). Almost half of those surveyed--46%--felt Lula was unaware of the vote-buying scheme, while 34% felt he knew about it. The Sensus results coincided with the Ipsos-Opinion survey taken June 21-29 and published in the weekly Veja magazine. According to this survey, 45% said that "Lula knew nothing about the corruption scandal"; 39% said he "knew something but did nothing to correct the situation"; and only 16% thought that Lula "knew about the scandal and was involved." The Ipsos-Opinion survey also found that 55% believed Lula to be an honest politician, while only 36% deemed the PT to be honest. According to Sensus poll projections for the October 2006 elections, Lula would defeat Jose Serra, PSDB mayor of Sao Paulo and Lula's opponent in 2002, by a margin of nearly 14 points. 

COMMENT: -------- 

3.(SBU) Despite the corruption scandal, Lula is riding out the storm, averaging approval ratings comparable to when he first came into office. These surveys indicate that his personal image has not yet been irreparably tarnished by the corruption scandal. If he is successful in cleaning house with his ongoing cabinet shuffle (reftel 1867) and keeps the economy on track, his candidacy for the October 2006 election should remain viable. This is assuming, though, that no new revelations emerge tying Lula more directly to the impropriety, and that continuous media coverage of the crisis does not change voters' perception of their president's credibility. 

CHICOLA